Category Archives: global trends

Will There Be a World Government?

I am against world government on precautionary grounds – we simply do not know what its actual results would be. We may hope that if we get a world government it will be a good one, but we must expect that it could be a tyranny. Only a minority of currently existing governments are competent, low in corruption, accountable, and constitutional. A world government would be more likely to reflect the inadequacies of the majority of governments.

But, how likely is a world government?

First, it is not necessary. The classic argument for world government is that it is needed to secure world peace, to stop us destroying ourselves. But this is no longer relevant. The world has entered a period in declining war. If world government is not necessary for world peace, then its chances are much diminished.

Second, there is no real trend towards more centralized power on a the world scale. The United Nations is not steadily accumulating more power.

So, world government is not on the horizon. Now, I admit that may be wishful thinking on my part, but I think it is solidly based.

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Filed under global trends, political evolution

There is a Long Peace

Steven Pinker explains why the Long Peace is a genuine trend. There has been

a superposition of four patterns (p. 192): (1) No cycles; (2) A big dose of randomness; (3) A long-term escalation in the destructiveness of war, which made a substantial U-turn after 1945; and (4) Long-term declines in the frequency and duration of war. Multiplying the trends in (3) and (4) yields the overall decline in war that we call The Long Peace, and Factor (2) should keep us humble and cautious.

This is about right, I think.

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Filed under global trends, war

Ethnofuturology

Also at Global Trends 2030, a piece on the ethnic future of Western Europe by Eric Kaufmann.
1-Immigration will not compensate for an ageing population:

immigrants’ age and their family sizes converge to host levels, thus the number of immigrants required to maintain a given age structure multiplies exponentially

2-Total immigration will probably remain at about 1 million per year.
3-By 2050 native-born white share of Europe’s population is projected to decline from 95 to about 85 percent. About half the minority growth in Europe will be Muslim. England is likely to be 25% minority in 2050. In Sweden Muslims will comprise nearly 14% of the population in 2030. Muslims will double in number in most countries over the next twenty years.

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Filed under demography, global trends

Predicting Peace’s Persistence

Global Trends 2030 is asking “Will the Long Peace Persist?

A couple of points:

1. Prediction is hazardous of course. The unlikely does sometimes occur.

2. But the Long Peace, the avoidance of war among big powers, is now well-established, partly because of the reaction to the World Wars, partly because of a general decline in violence in many domains. So, I say: yes, the Long Peace will probably persist.

3. For much of the twentieth century, the issue of how to avoid world war (and what causes war) was a pressing one. Now, we have other major problems.

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Filed under global trends, war