Predicting Peace’s Persistence

Global Trends 2030 is asking “Will the Long Peace Persist?

A couple of points:

1. Prediction is hazardous of course. The unlikely does sometimes occur.

2. But the Long Peace, the avoidance of war among big powers, is now well-established, partly because of the reaction to the World Wars, partly because of a general decline in violence in many domains. So, I say: yes, the Long Peace will probably persist.

3. For much of the twentieth century, the issue of how to avoid world war (and what causes war) was a pressing one. Now, we have other major problems.

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Filed under global trends, war

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